By Richard Martin, Chief Strategist, Alcera Consulting Inc.
In uncertain times, it is natural—perhaps even necessary—to focus on what we can control: our health, our families, our work, our immediate surroundings. This is not avoidance; it is pragmatic leadership. As institutions wobble and headlines pulse with alarm, the most stabilizing force is often composed individuals making clear-eyed decisions within their circle of influence.
There is value—moral, psychological, and strategic—in staying calm. But calm should never be confused with complacency, and focus should never narrow into tunnel vision.
The Wisdom of Pragmatism
The call to “control what you can and ignore the rest” is compelling. It is an antidote to despair. It reminds us that agency does not require omnipotence. This mindset is especially valuable for leaders, who must project steadiness even when conditions are volatile.
In a world awash with speculation, outrage, and noise, focusing on the tangible is a form of moral discipline. It grounds us. It affirms that clarity begins close to home. In this, the stoic impulse is right: there are things within our control, and things beyond it—and wisdom consists in knowing the difference.
But that cannot be the end of the conversation.
The Full Range of Possibility
Staying focused on the controllable must be accompanied by a realistic, even sobering, view of the broader strategic environment. Not because we can predict the future, but because we must be prepared to adapt to it.
This is where scenario thinking becomes crucial. The future is not a single unfolding event, but a set of branching paths. Some scenarios are more probable than others—but probability reflects our current knowledge, not reality itself. In other words, probability is epistemic; reality is ontological.
A “low probability” event may still occur. A “high probability” path may be derailed by a single black swan. Leaders must keep this distinction in mind—especially now, when structural change and symbolic volatility are reshaping the strategic landscape across economics, politics, security, and culture.
Between Panic and Denial
The danger isn’t only panic. It’s also premature closure. The belief that we know how this plays out. That “things always return to normal.” That the pendulum is already swinging back. These assumptions offer comfort—but they can also dull our vigilance.
History shows that transitions are not always smooth. The return to balance can be violent, delayed, or unstable. Institutions that appear to bend may, in fact, be cracking. Cultural excesses do not vanish simply because their tide has crested—they often calcify or mutate.
We must not catastrophize. But neither should we lull ourselves into thinking that calm rhetoric alone will restore equilibrium. The centre is not a place we wait for—it is something we must reconstruct.
Strategic Epistemology and Scenario Thinking
This is where tools like Strategic Epistemology and robust scenario planning become essential. They help us distinguish between:
- What people believe is happening,
- What is actually happening,
- And how those beliefs shape actions that, in turn, shape outcomes.
They also help us identify cognitive and cultural blind spots: overconfidence in “normalcy,” underestimation of symbolic volatility, or dismissal of emergent coalitions that don’t fit old ideological categories.
In short: these tools equip us not just to react, but to interpret—and that is the foundation of resilient strategy.
Leadership in the Interregnum
We are living in an interregnum—a moment when the old order is dying, and the new has not yet been born. These are periods of turbulence, where the rules are unclear, and the stakes are high.
In such times, leadership is not just about navigating policy or process. It’s about embodying clarity in uncertainty, purpose amid pluralism, and moral steadiness in an emotionally saturated environment.
To do this well, we must hold two truths simultaneously:
- We must act where we have influence.
- We must see beyond what we can immediately control.
This dual posture—grounded action, expansive vision—is what allows individuals and institutions not only to survive complexity, but to shape what emerges from it.
Conclusion: Realism Without Panic
Calm is not the absence of awareness. Realism is not a surrender to fatalism. The task is not to choose between stoic focus and strategic foresight—but to cultivate both.
Now is not the time to shrink our aperture. It is the time to stabilize within, and scan broadly.
We do not need to know the future to prepare wisely. We only need to stop pretending it is already settled.
About the Author
Richard Martin is the founder and president of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm specializing in exploiting change (www.exploitingchange.com). Richard’s mission is to empower top-level leaders to exercise strategic foresight, navigate uncertainty, drive transformative change, and build individual and organizational resilience, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles. He is also the developer of Worldview Warfare and Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking methodology that focuses on understanding beliefs, values, and strategy in a world of conflict, competition, and cooperation.
© 2025 Richard Martin
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