Fear is not a forecast and mistaking emotion for strategic prediction leads to dangerous misjudgments. In the aftermath of Israel’s preemptive and preventive strike on Iranian military and nuclear targets, much of the global response has collapsed into imagined escalation scenarios rather than grounded analysis. My latest piece applies Strategic Epistemology to cut through the fog: this was not retaliation, but a deliberate act of sovereign defence in response to a credible, long-building threat. Strategic clarity demands we distinguish between what is feared, what is possible, and what is actually unfolding.
