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  5. NATO Must Balance More Arms for Ukraine with its own Needs

NATO Must Balance More Arms for Ukraine with its own Needs

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  • Richard Martin
  • February 19, 2024
  • 10:18 am
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Richard Martin

Richard Martin empowers leaders to outmaneuver uncertainty and drive change through strategic insight and transformative thinking.
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By Richard Martin

An acquaintance has asked why some in the West are accusing our governments of cowardice for not sending more weapons and equipment to Ukraine to help in its war to expel Russia from the occupied zones. Some of it has to do with support to Russia or fear of provoking Russia, but cowardice is a meaningless blanket term that doesn’t help with any kind of planning or assessment.

However, I believe the main concern has to do with the need to shore up NATO war stocks, especially of 155 mm shells and things like ATACMS missiles (fired by MLRS or HiMARS batteries), as well as air-launched cruise missiles like the German-Swedish Taurus and the Franco-British Storm Shadow. All of these are in limited supply until production can be fully ramped up. European countries have been investing heavily in ramping up production over the last year or so, after they realized that the war in Ukraine was going to last much longer than anticipated. Even in WW2 it took years for the US and other allies to ramp up war production to the needed levels. One of the lessons that is being relearned in Ukraine is the level of ammo usage, especially artillery.

We also must consider the ongoing Russian threat against front-line NATO partners from Kaliningrad (see map). Russia has dual-capable (nuclear and conventional) Iskander missiles and bombers based in K-Grad that can strike up to 500 km away. That doesn’t count other elements like bombers deep in Russia capable of launching cruise missiles out of range of any NATO air defence system, as well as warships in the Caspian Sea with long-range strike capabilities.

NATO must balance all of these factors, i.e., the need to maintain conventional deterrence against Russian threats, not just nuclear deterrence, as well as their own capabilities. I think that there has been considerable pressure by certain Western powers on the Ukrainian government to step up their recruiting, training, and management of their ground forces so they can put more men in the field and sustain operations beyond initial breakthroughs. I think the US and UK have also been putting a lot of pressure on Ukraine to do more weapons production themselves.

One area where things seem to be moving well is in ramping up the equipping of the Ukrainian air force with F-16s. I think this is something that will come into play by the summer. The recent changes to the high command of the Ukrainian forces by President Zelensky will also have an effect over the medium term.

© 2024 Richard Martin


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Richard Martin, President of Alcera Consulting Inc.

Richard Martin

Richard Martin is the President of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm collaborating with top-level leaders to provide strategic insight, navigate uncertainty, and drive transformative change, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles and the creator of the blog ExploitingChange.com. Richard is also the developer of Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking theory that focuses on winning the battle for minds in a world of conflict by dismantling opposing worldviews and ideologies through strategic narrative and archetypal awareness.

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