By Richard Martin, Chief Strategist, Alcera Consulting Inc.
Introduction
The United States is undergoing a period of acute social, political, and economic instability that Peter Turchin’s Structural Demographic Theory (SDT) helps to explain. SDT posits that complex societies periodically experience crises driven by elite overproduction, declining living standards, state fiscal stress, and widespread relative immiseration. These forces converge into a predictable cycle of instability. While SDT was developed with historical empires in mind, its application to the modern United States offers insight into the deep structural pressures underpinning contemporary American dysfunction. Importantly, this crisis does not stop at America’s borders. Canada, by virtue of its integration with the United States in trade, culture, defence, and some societal norms, is already experiencing secondary effects.
The US SDT Crisis: A Snapshot
At the heart of the American crisis lies an overproduction of elites. Too many individuals with elite credentials are competing for a finite number of influential positions. This glut has led to increased intra-elite conflict, ideological polarization, and the proliferation of counter-elites. At the same time, wage stagnation, rising inequality, and declining life expectancy among working-class Americans have led to mass resentment and alienation. The federal government, meanwhile, faces mounting debt, declining trust, and increasing institutional paralysis.
The election of Donald Trump in 2016, far from being the cause of this crisis, was its clearest early manifestation. Trump’s populist appeal, perpetual antagonism, and destabilizing rhetoric exploited and amplified preexisting fractures in the American polity. His movement—Make America Great Again (MAGA)—continues to thrive on the mass alienation and elite fragmentation described by Turchin. The result is not just a temporary political moment, but an extended phase of systemic breakdown.
Structural Spillover: How the US Crisis Affects Canada
Canada is not insulated from the SDT crisis engulfing its southern neighbour. The integration of the two countries ensures that instability in the United States inevitably influences Canada’s social fabric, political discourse, and economic trajectory.
1. Elite Overproduction North of the Border
Canada has followed a similar path of expanding higher education and credentialism, producing more university graduates than there are high-status jobs to absorb them. The result is a class of frustrated, underemployed professionals who feel politically and economically marginalized. This phenomenon mirrors American patterns, though the scale is smaller. Nonetheless, intra-elite conflict is increasing, particularly between traditional political, bureaucratic, and academic elites, and a growing cohort of populist, regional, and dissident voices.
2. Mass Resentment and Regional Alienation
In Canada, mass resentment takes on a regional form. Western alienation—particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan—has intensified as federal policies are taken to favour central Canada and urban progressive elites. The economic marginalization of resource-based provinces parallels the plight of the American Rust Belt. This alienation has manifested in calls for greater provincial autonomy, and in some cases, secessionist rhetoric. Here, too, the influence of American polarization is evident, with Canadian populism borrowing themes from the MAGA movement.
3. Imported Polarization and Institutional Erosion
Canadian public discourse is increasingly shaped by American ideological frameworks. Cultural conflicts, such as debates over race, gender, and identity, are often imported wholesale from the United States, despite differing historical and demographic realities. Social media accelerates this transmission, fragmenting the Canadian public sphere and reducing space for consensus-building. Meanwhile, trust in Canadian institutions—from media to government—is eroding, with some regions expressing open defiance of federal authority.
4. Trump as Catalyst for Canadian Nationalism
Ironically, Trump’s provocations—such as floating the idea of annexing Canada or criticizing its defence spending—have stirred dormant nationalist instincts in Canada. His threats have pressured Ottawa to increase border security and military spending. In many quarters, they have even reignited pride in Canadian sovereignty. Yet this reaction also reveals the fragility of Canadian unity: national pride has been awakened not by domestic renewal, but by external pressure.
Conclusion: Parallel Trajectories, Intertwined Destinies
The Structural Demographic Theory highlights the long-term dynamics that drive state crisis, and the United States is now firmly in a period of upheaval predicted by the model. Canada, though not undergoing a full SDT cycle of its own, is being drawn into the orbit of its neighbour’s turmoil. From elite disaffection and mass resentment to regional alienation and institutional fragility, Canada faces growing internal strains that reflect, amplify, or react to developments in the United States.
On the other hand, Canadians generally exhibit higher levels of trust in their governmental and social institutions than Americans, reflecting a more stable civic culture. This trust is evident in ongoing support for the federal Liberals and the confidence many put in figures like Mark Carney, whose elite background is seen as a source of credibility. In contrast, the Conservatives appear to be aligning with the growing mood of disenchantment with technocratic elitism, tapping into the discontent and skepticism emerging in parts of the population.
Understanding these dynamics is not merely an academic exercise. For Canadian leaders, entrepreneurs, business strategists, and citizens, it is a call to recognize the structural nature of the moment—and to prepare accordingly.
About the Author
Richard Martin is the founder and president of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm specializing in exploiting change (www.exploitingchange.com). Richard’s mission is to empower top-level leaders to exercise strategic foresight, navigate uncertainty, drive transformative change, and build individual and organizational resilience, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles. He is also the developer of Worldview Warfare and Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking methodology that focuses on understanding beliefs, values, and strategy in a world of conflict, competition, and cooperation.
© 2025 Richard Martin
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