By Richard Martin, President, Alcera Consulting Inc.
Ukraine holds a unique and enduring position in the geopolitical and strategic landscape of Europe, acting as a crucial pivot point between competing national ambitions, ideologies, and strategic interests. Its value is defined not only by geography but also by deep historical, economic, and ideological factors that have consistently drawn major powers to seek control or influence over its territory.
Historical Context: Russia’s Original Conquest and Integration of Ukraine
Historically, Ukraine’s integration into the Russian Empire was driven by strategic imperatives tied to military and economic ambitions. Initially, the Treaty of Pereyaslav (1654) marked the beginning of Ukrainian integration into Russia, later solidified through the partitions of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth in the late 18th century. These conquests provided Russia essential access to fertile lands, warm-water ports, and strategic depth.
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the Donbas region in Ukraine became the industrial heartland of the Russian Empire, fueling rapid industrialization with abundant coal and iron ore. This industrial boom drew significant foreign investment from Germany, Britain, and France, making Ukraine pivotal to Russia’s modernization.
Germany’s Ambitions During Both World Wars
Germany’s repeated efforts to control Ukraine in both world wars further underscore its economic and strategic importance:
- In World War I, following the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918), Germany occupied Ukraine hoping to exploit its agricultural resources to alleviate wartime shortages. However, war damage and civil strife prevented Germany from fully benefiting.
- In World War II, Ukraine became the core of Hitler’s Lebensraum strategy. The Nazis aimed to seize Ukrainian lands to secure food self-sufficiency and industrial resources for the Reich. Ukraine was envisioned as an agricultural and industrial heartland, while the rest of European Russia was relegated as a dumping ground for populations the Nazis considered undesirable.
Stalin’s Soviet Union and the Centrality of Ukraine
Ukraine was fundamental to Stalin’s vision of Soviet power and rapid industrialization. The policy of forced collectivization was particularly severe in Ukraine, leading to the catastrophic famine known as the Holodomor (1932–33). Stalin intended to use Ukraine’s agricultural wealth—forcefully seized from farmers—to fund industrialization by exporting produce for foreign hard currency to import industrial capital and technology.
Simultaneously, the Donbas region was crucial in Stalin’s heavy-industrial drive, powering the growth of Soviet industry and military capabilities. After World War II, despite persistent guerrilla resistance into the 1950s, Ukraine continued to serve as a pivotal component of Soviet military-industrial strategy, notably as a central location for nuclear forces during the Cold War. This explains why Ukraine inherited a substantial portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal upon the USSR’s dissolution, a point explored extensively by scholars such as Dr. Sean Maloney of Canada’s Royal Military College.
Ukraine in Contemporary Strategic Dynamics: Russia versus Europe
Today, Ukraine is again central to Russian geopolitical ambitions, echoing historical patterns. From Moscow’s viewpoint, Ukraine represents vital ground, indispensable to its survival as a great power. Russia fears not an imminent military invasion from NATO, but the ideological and political threat posed by a democratic, economically successful Ukraine. Losing control over Ukraine would mean relinquishing the historical identity of Russia as an imperial power, reducing it to its Muscovite and Siberian heartlands, and limiting its naval capabilities and access to strategic maritime corridors through the Black Sea and Turkish Straits.
Conversely, for Europe—and NATO specifically—Ukraine constitutes key terrain, valuable but not existentially essential. The European strategic calculus is focused primarily on containing Russian influence and expansion rather than fully integrating Ukraine as an equal member of institutions like the EU or NATO. Europe’s strategic imperative revolves around preventing Russia from projecting power westward, securing economic advantages through Ukrainian agriculture and industry, and maintaining regional stability.
Contemporary Geopolitical Stakes
Today’s geopolitical rivalry over Ukraine thus reflects a clear difference in strategic urgency:
- For Russia, dominating or at least neutralizing Ukraine is a matter of national survival, identity, and imperial ambition.
- For Europe, ensuring Ukraine remains outside direct Russian control is strategically critical, significantly enhancing Europe’s geopolitical security and economic potential, yet not an existential necessity. It is about containing Russian power rather than directly confronting it.
Conclusion
Ukraine remains Europe’s geopolitical cockpit, a space where the grand strategic interests of major powers have repeatedly collided throughout history. For Russia, Ukraine represents vital ground necessary to sustain its imperial ambitions and great-power identity. For Europe, Ukraine is strategic key terrain: important and advantageous for containing Russian power and securing broader continental stability. Ultimately, this historical and contemporary contest over Ukraine is about much more than territory—it is about defining Europe’s political and strategic future.
About the Author
Richard Martin is the founder and president of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm specializing in exploiting change (www.exploitingchange.com). Richard’s mission is to empower top-level leaders to exercise strategic foresight, navigate uncertainty, drive transformative change, and build individual and organizational resilience, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles. He is also the developer of Worldview Warfare and Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking methodology that focuses on understanding beliefs, values, and strategy in a world of conflict, competition, and cooperation.
© 2025 Richard Martin
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