By Richard Martin, President, Alcera Consulting Inc.
US presidential elections are typically decided by domestic politics and policies, a commonality in open, democratic elections for national leaders worldwide. Yet, despite this focus, American presidents and their administrations dedicate significant time and resources to foreign affairs.
This is inevitable, given the United States’ central role in the global economy and financial system, coupled with its vast array of vital interests spread across the globe.
For perspective, consider the scale of US commitments. The US maintains around 750 military bases in approximately 80 countries. It upholds mutual defence alliances through at least seven major multilateral or bilateral treaties, including NATO, and agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, Canada, the Philippines, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The US Navy commands powerful strike groups with the world’s largest aircraft carriers deployed in strategic locations such as the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Western Pacific. Moreover, the US Air Force and Navy are equipped with bombers and missiles capable of delivering conventional and nuclear payloads with pinpoint accuracy anywhere on the planet within minutes.
Since World War II, the United States has been home to the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. The US dollar remains the dominant currency for international trade, and US government bonds are the primary assets backing most of the world’s currencies, even those of nations actively seeking alternatives, like Russia and China.
None of this will change after the election on November 5th, regardless of the outcome. Conversations with friends and acquaintances in the US reveal a nation divided: roughly one-third firmly support Kamala Harris, another third are avid Trump supporters, and the final third remain undecided or intend to vote reluctantly. Neither candidate is perfect—when have perfect candidates ever existed?
American politics will continue to perplex and frustrate outside observers. The US government’s structure, with its system of “checks and balances,” was designed to counteract the darker aspects of human nature, as James Madison articulated in Federalist No. 51: “Ambition must be made to counteract ambition.” The Constitution leverages the inherent tensions among individuals and factions, recognizing the imperfections of human nature.
George Washington, in his farewell address after serving two terms, warned against foreign entanglements and political factionalism. Yet within months of his departure, political parties emerged, and soon after, American forces were dispatched to North Africa to combat piracy—a testament to the enduring importance of free trade and secure navigation, principles that remain fundamental for Americans to this day.
A prevalent misconception about American history is that its people are fundamentally isolationist. While isolationist sentiments have surfaced at times over the nation’s nearly 250-year history, the dominant narrative has been one of expansion and global influence. This expansion began in eastern North America and extended to the Pacific, Caribbean, Mexico, and Latin America. The ethos of exploration and settlement is woven into the fabric of American identity. For instance, there have been four major invasions of Canada by American based forces since the late 17th century, in addition to countless smaller skirmishes. These incursions ultimately failed, likely mainly due to Canada’s harsh climate and vast distances.
So, what can we expect after November 5th, 2024? Regardless of who becomes president, the focus will remain on domestic issues, balanced with the continued execution of international diplomacy and deterrence in support of treaty partners. Issues such as the southern border with Mexico and illegal immigration will persist. The political landscape will be rife with allegations of rigged voting, biased media coverage, and partisan witch hunts, complete with indictments and arraignments. American domestic politics will stay dramatic and, at times, captivating.
Yet despite the spectacle, the president of the United States will still hold the title of commander-in-chief of the most formidable military force in the world. The US will continue to offer nuclear and conventional deterrence for its allies and, at times, even nations outside formal alliances. This status will persist regardless of individual opinions in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, or Springfield, Ohio.
The US will also maintain its role as the world’s economic engine, with the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department underpinning global trade and currency stability. A Trump presidency might reignite rhetoric around tariffs, unfair trade practices, and efforts to revitalize the Rust Belt by promoting domestic manufacturing and job creation. But alongside these potential policy shifts, the US will continue leading in innovation—artificial intelligence, machine learning, reusable rockets, robotics, and electric vehicles—all driven by America’s vibrant ecosystem of investors and deep capital markets.
In summary, not much will change on November 6th, 2024. The outcome of the presidential election will not alter the fundamental trajectory of the United States of America.
About the Author
Richard Martin is the President of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm collaborating with top-level leaders to provide strategic insight, navigate uncertainty, and drive transformative change, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles and the creator of the blog ExploitingChange.com. Richard is also the developer of Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking theory that focuses on winning the battle for minds in a world of conflict by dismantling opposing worldviews and ideologies through strategic narrative and archetypal awareness.
© 2024 Richard Martin
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